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Projected farm-level prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans, 1990-February 2008, projected to 2016. Levels reflect, in part, movements in U.S. stocks-to-use ratios.

• Corn prices continue to rise through 2009/10 as increases in ethanol production strengthen corn demand. As ethanol expansion slows, stocks rebuild somewhat and corn prices decline. Then in the longer run, corn stocks-to-use ratios fall slowly as gains in corn used for ethanol production and moderate export growth outpace increases in production (resulting from generally higher acreage and gains in yields). Consequently, corn prices resume moderate growth and remain historically high.

• With competition from corn keeping soybean acreage lower, stocks are held relatively constant, the stocks-to-use ratio falls, and soybean prices remain high throughout the projections.

• Wheat prices decline from current levels in the early years of the projections as higher production facilitates the rebuilding of stocks. As wheat acreage declines in the latter years of the projections, stocks decline and push wheat prices up.